NIFTY : More Paint to come? | TRADING PLAN | 05-OCT-2026

DAY BEFORE WEEKLY EXPIRY

Previous Close: 22,445.60
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Market Structure: Bearish / Corrective
Intraday Bias: Neutral to Bearish below 22,514

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KEY LEVELS

🔴 22,883–22,970 → Profit Booking Zone
🔴 22,680 → Last Intraday Resistance
🟠 22,514 → Opening Resistance

⚫ 22,445.60 → Previous Close

🟢 22,266–22,333 → Opening Support Zone
🔴 21,872 → Last Intraday Support
🔴 21,520 → Major Extended Support

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TECHNICAL VIEW

NIFTY remains in a bearish corrective structure after the sharp decline from the 23,000+ region.

The immediate resistance is 22,514. This is the first important hurdle for any recovery.

A sustained move above 22,514 can open the way toward 22,680.

Above 22,680, the next major upside area is the 22,883–22,970 profit-booking zone.

On the downside, 22,266–22,333 is the key opening support zone based on recent price structure and consolidation.

A sustained breakdown below this zone can increase downside pressure toward 21,872, followed by 21,520.

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100+ POINT GAP REFERENCES

Previous Close: 22,445.60

100-Point Gap Up Reference: 22,545.60
100-Point Gap Down Reference: 22,345.60

These are scenario references, NOT predictions.

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🟢 GAP-UP OPENING – 100+ POINTS

If NIFTY opens above approximately 22,546:

• Sustained above 22,514 → Positive intraday momentum
• Above 22,680 → Recovery can extend toward 22,883–22,970
• Rejection near 22,680 → Profit booking/weakness can return toward 22,514 and 22,333

⚠️ Do not chase the opening gap. Wait for price acceptance and confirmation above key resistance levels.

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🟡 FLAT / NORMAL OPENING

If NIFTY opens near the previous close:

• Above 22,514 → Watch 22,680
• Above 22,680 → 22,883–22,970
• Below 22,333 → Weakness toward 21,872
• Inside 22,266–22,333 → WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

The opening support zone should be treated as a decision area, not an automatic buying zone.

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🔴 GAP-DOWN OPENING – 100+ POINTS

If NIFTY opens below approximately 22,346:

• Reclaim of 22,333 → Possible recovery toward 22,445–22,514
• Sustained below 22,266 → Bearish continuation becomes more likely
• Below the support zone → 21,872 becomes the next important downside reference
• Decisive break below 21,872 → 21,520 becomes the extended downside level

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DAY-BEFORE-EXPIRY APPROACH

✔ Expect increased volatility as weekly expiry approaches.
✔ Wait for the first 15–30 minutes before taking aggressive directional trades.
✔ Use 15-minute closing confirmation around key levels.
✔ Avoid chasing gap openings.
✔ Avoid aggressive option buying inside 22,266–22,333 without confirmation.
✔ Keep position size controlled and define the invalidation level before entry.
✔ Never average a losing options position.

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KEY MARKET MAP

🟢 ABOVE 22,680
Recovery Strength → 22,883–22,970

🟠 22,514–22,680
Resistance / Decision Zone

🟢 22,266–22,333
Opening Support Zone

🔴 BELOW 22,266
Weakness → 21,872 → 21,520

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SUMMARY

The key battle for 05-Oct is between the 22,266–22,333 support zone and 22,514–22,680 resistance zone.

A sustained breakout above 22,680 can trigger a recovery toward 22,883–22,970.

A sustained breakdown below 22,266 can expose 21,872, followed by 21,520.

With weekly expiry approaching, the focus should remain on confirmed price action rather than predicting the opening direction.

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DISCLAIMER

This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. I am NOT a SEBI registered analyst.

This post is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. Trading in F&O involves substantial risk. Please conduct your own analysis and follow appropriate risk management.

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