BTCUSDT 30m: three checks before you trust a breakout

BTCUSDT pushed through the 72,000 area after a sharp impulse off 64,500. The useful question is not the direction, it is whether the move has anything behind it.

1. Volume confirms the impulse. A working move usually prints volume above the 20-bar average. Price tearing through a level on unremarkable volume is more often a stop hunt than the start of a trend.

2. Speed matters more than size. Count the bars, not the candle length. Five fast bars with short wicks is an impulse. Ten bars with long wicks in both directions is distribution, and price often leaves that zone the other way.

3. The retest has to respect the level. After a real impulse price comes back to the broken level and bounces from it. If the pullback eats more than two thirds of the move and closes on the far side, there was no impulse - there was a sweep.

Invalidation first: a scenario without a price at which the idea stops working is not a scenario. Here that price is a 30m close back under 71,000.

Not investment advice. Every trade carries risk.

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