MARKET SEEMS BULLISH. OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN.

Market Outlook: Bullish Bias on Metals and Energy My current bias is bullish, particularly on metals and energy. The reasoning is primarily based on the relationship between geopolitical risk, dollar strength, and investor sentiment. Looking back at the previous major geopolitical escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, the market reacted alongside significant political developments in Iran. Because those events occurred over the weekend, markets were unable to price the news immediately, resulting in a strong reaction once trading resumed. At that time, the U.S. dollar strengthened considerably. A stronger dollar generally puts pressure on gold and other commodities, which explains why gold corrected despite the geopolitical uncertainty. However, the current situation appears different. Although tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have resurfaced, we are not seeing the same level of dollar strength. The dollar's ability to attract safe-haven flows seems weaker than before. Over the past several months, policy uncertainty, political noise, and frequent market-moving statements have reduced investor confidence and created higher volatility. As a result, investors may increasingly prefer hard assets such as precious metals and energy commodities rather than relying solely on the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. From a price perspective, the 4,500 level appears to be an achievable target in the near term. If the market reaches that level and manages to produce a convincing breakout, the next major objective could be the 5,000 region. Therefore, my base case remains: Bullish on metals. Bullish on energy. Neutral to cautious on the U.S. dollar. Watching the 4,500 level as a key resistance zone. A confirmed breakout could open the path toward 5,000. Of course, this outlook depends on several variables, including geopolitical developments, central bank policy, and dollar strength. Markets remain highly dynamic, so risk management remains more important than prediction.