CHART LINK —> https://gocharting.com/terminal/chart/sol7HNMz47
Date: January 4, 2025
Approach: Auction Market Theory (AMT) – Value Areas, POCs, VWAP
1. Market Overview
Recent Momentum:
Price has rallied sharply from around 23,800–23,900 and broken into higher value areas. This suggests the market is searching for a “new balance” at higher prices.
Overall Bias:
Leaning bullish given the strong upward move. However, be prepared for possible rejections near upper resistance zones if price can’t hold above key points of control (POCs) or value area highs (VAHs).
2. Key Levels & Zones
(Note: Approximate figures based on the chart)
Upside Levels
-
Minor Support / Pivot: 24,240
Composite Point of Control (POC): ~24,300
Monthly/Weekly VWAP & VAH Clusters: 24,344 → 24,397 → 24,439
Next Composite VAH/POC Cluster: 24,514 → 24,560 → 24,594 → 24,626
Yearly VAH + December VAH: ~24,728 → 24,830
Downside Levels
Below 24,240 → 24,180 → 24,079 → 23,900–23,920
(These can act as support if the market rejects higher prices and revisits older value areas.)
CHART LINK —> https://gocharting.com/terminal/chart/sol7HNMz47
3. Possible Intraday Scenarios
A. Bullish Continuation
Trigger: Clean break above 24,300 (Composite POC) with price “accepting” that level (holding above on 15–30 minute candles).
Targets: 24,344 → 24,397 → 24,439
Potential extension to 24,514 → 24,560 → 24,594
Stop‐Loss: 40–50 points below 24,300 (or under any consolidation area right below it).
Tip: Look for higher lows and sustained volume above 24,300. Book partial profits at each overhead level, and consider leaving a runner if momentum remains strong.
B. Rejection Above POC
Trigger: Price pokes above 24,300–24,344 but quickly sells back under the POC (24,300).
Target:24,240 minor support first.
If that fails, 24,180 → 24,079.
Stop‐Loss: Around 40–50 points above the failed level (e.g., above 24,344).
Tip: Watch for wicks or multiple attempts to break higher that fail. This indicates the market doesn’t accept higher prices and may revert to lower value areas.
C. Larger Downside Move
Trigger: A decisive break below 24,240 with strong selling volume.
Target:Quick scalp to 24,180; deeper move toward 24,079.
Potential retest of 23,900–23,920 if selling intensifies.
Stop‐Loss: 40–50 points above 24,240, or above any consolidation after the breakdown.
Tip: Look for the market to retest 24,240 from below and fail to reclaim it before going short.
4. Using Higher‐Timeframe VWAP
Monthly VWAP near 24,439
Could act as a magnet if the market stays above 24,300.
If tested, watch for either a swift rejection or a consolidation/acceptance that could push price even higher.
Yearly + December VAH (24,728 → 24,830)
A strong trending day could target this area.
Often provides sharper rejections on first touch.
5. Risk Management & Final Notes
Stop‐Loss Range: 40–50 points keeps risk tight while aiming for at least 1:1 reward.
Take Partial Profits: Scale out at each key level—VAH, VAL, or POC.
Stay Flexible: AMT focuses on acceptance vs. rejection. If price fails above a key area, be ready to flip bias if the market transitions back inside old value.
Bottom Line: We have a bullish tilt given the recent rally, but always confirm intraday acceptance or rejection at key levels. Quick, one‐sided moves are likely between these major value areas, so watch for volume and price action cues.
CHART LINK —> https://gocharting.com/terminal/chart/sol7HNMz47